Abstract--With recent technological advances, process logs, which were traditionally deterministic in nature, are being captured from non-deterministic sources, such as uncertain sensors or machine learning models (that predict activities using cameras). In the presence of stochastically-known logs, logs that contain probabilistic information, the need for stochastic trace recovery increases, to offer reliable means of understanding the processes that govern such systems. We design a novel deep learning approach for stochastic trace recovery, based on Diffusion Denoising Probabilistic Models (DDPM), which makes use of process knowledge (either implicitly by discovering a model or explicitly by injecting process knowledge in the training phase) to recover traces by denoising. We conduct an empirical evaluation demonstrating state-of-the-art performance with up to a 25% improvement over existing methods, along with increased robustness under high noise levels. The goal of process mining is to discover, analyze, and optimize real-world processes [1]. Servicing a patient in a hospital, filing a marriage certificate, or preparing a meal are all examples of real-world processes that can be analyzed and improved. Process mining relies on a process log, a recording of process execution, which contains a collection of traces where each trace is a sequence of activities. Traditionally, a process log is created by either manually logging real-world activities (e.g., a nurse keying in the timestamp of finishing an examination), or having activities automatically captured and logged by an information system. Process logs are assumed to record events in a deterministic fashion.

The Quadratic Assignment Problem (QAP) is one of the major domains in the field of evolutionary computation, and more widely in combinatorial optimization. This paper studies the phase transition of the QAP, which can be described as a dramatic change in the problem's computational complexity and satisfiability, within a narrow range of the problem parameters. To approach this phenomenon, we introduce a new QAP-SAT design of the initial problem based on submodularity to capture its difficulty with new features. This decomposition is studied experimentally using branch-and-bound and tabu search solvers. A phase transition parameter is then proposed. The critical parameter of phase transition satisfaction and that of the solving effort are shown to be highly correlated for tabu search, thus allowing the prediction of difficult instances.

Unlike the traditional dock-based systems, dockless bike-sharing systems are more convenient for users in terms of flexibility. However, the flexibility of these dockless systems comes at the cost of management and operation complexity. Indeed, the imbalanced and dynamic use of bikes leads to mandatory rebalancing operations, which impose a critical need for effective bike traffic flow prediction. While efforts have been made in developing traffic flow prediction models, existing approaches lack interpretability, and thus have limited value in practical deployment. To this end, we propose an Interpretable Bike Flow Prediction (IBFP) framework, which can provide effective bike flow prediction with interpretable traffic patterns. Specifically, by dividing the urban area into regions according to flow density, we first model the spatio-temporal bike flows between regions with graph regularized sparse representation, where graph Laplacian is used as a smooth operator to preserve the commonalities of the periodic data structure. Then, we extract traffic patterns from bike flows using subspace clustering with sparse representation to construct interpretable base matrices. Moreover, the bike flows can be predicted with the interpretable base matrices and learned parameters. Finally, experimental results on real-world data show the advantages of the IBFP method for flow prediction in dockless bike sharing systems. In addition, the interpretability of our flow pattern exploitation is further illustrated through a case study where IBFP provides valuable insights into bike flow analysis.

This paper addresses network anomography, that is, the problem of inferring network-level anomalies from indirect link measurements. This problem is cast as a low-rank subspace tracking problem for normal flows under incomplete observations, and an outlier detection problem for abnormal flows. Since traffic data is large-scale time-structured data accompanied with noise and outliers under partial observations, an efficient modeling method is essential. To this end, this paper proposes an online subspace tracking of a Hankelized time-structured traffic tensor for normal flows based on the Candecomp/PARAFAC decomposition exploiting the recursive least squares (RLS) algorithm. We estimate abnormal flows as outlier sparse flows via sparsity maximization in the underlying under-constrained linear-inverse problem. A major advantage is that our algorithm estimates normal flows by low-dimensional matrices with time-directional features as well as the spatial correlation of multiple links without using the past observed measurements and the past model parameters. Extensive numerical evaluations show that the proposed algorithm achieves faster convergence per iteration of model approximation, and better volume anomaly detection performance compared to state-of-the-art algorithms.